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Congested Equilibrium

You, like me, probably dislike being stuck in traffic. If you live in a densely populated area, it's likely that for at least some of the day, a number of the major roads around you are congested, i.e. there's a lot of traffic, and it tends to go slowly. Unfortunately, as I learned with the phrase "Congested equilibrium," from UCL Professor David Metz, there's no magic wand to wave for roads that will run smoothly and get you to your destination with minimal hassle. What is Congested Equilibrium? It's easy to assume that there's a fixed amount of traffic on the roads. So if your local road agency widens, improves, or adds alternative fast roads to get to your destination, you might think that traffic will improve. And it does, but only briefly. Then somehow the traffic jams return. The reality is that in densely populated areas, traffic congestion tends to be self-regulating. When driving is slow and somewhat painful, people who would have driven make other choices: choose not to travel—maybe a video call instead, or just don't go to the shops take a different means of transport such as a train or bike travel earlier or later take different routes After millions in road investment—perhaps widening roads or building a bypass or extended stretch of motorway—traffic runs faster, for a time. But when people realise that roads are again a good option for travel, some of those who had chosen not to drive or didn't use that route before, jump back in the car and make use of the new, improved roads. And the increased traffic once again leads to congestion that gets progressively worse until people decide to make other choices once again. Traffic congestion is a feature of road networks that is very hard to avoid because densely populated areas have a vast reserve of these suppressed trips—people who would drive if the traffic was better—ready to make use of an improved road network when it arrives. From congested equilibrium comes the maxim in travel planning circles: "You can't build your way out of congestion." I learned about congested equilibrium and the general trials and challenges of travel planners in the book Good to go? Decarbonising Travel After the Pandemic by Professor David Metz. Although the book had less to do with decarbonising than I expected, it did teach me a great deal about the challenges and considerations of travel planning. Related Ideas to Congested Equilibrium Marchetti's Constant—as we travelled faster, we travelled farther, maintaining about an hour's daily travel time Laws of Expansion Isochrones Pollution is highly localized: take the back streets Travel choices in London Our Senses are Built to Take in Information at Human Pace Jevons paradox Cobra effect Frequency is freedom, a line from Jarrett Walker about the impact of frequency on public transport. I haven't sketched this yet, but it's so catchy I thought I'd share More I learned About Traffic For the last half a century or so, the average daily travel time has remained unchanged. This is despite huge investments in road networks in urban areas. When I find myself stuck in and complaining about traffic, my mind flashes back to a memory of a billboard in San Francisco that read, "You are not stuck in traffic. You are traffic." Then I feel better about my fellow drivers. What people like least is uncertainty about journey time. So digital navigation, as exemplified by Google Maps, is doing an amazing job at giving us peace of mind here. Until ChatGPT, I put Google Maps as the best app out there. In European cities you tend to find either high public transport use (like London), or a lot of cycling (think Copenhagen). But you don't tend to find high levels of both. Copenhagen's proportion of car journeys is similar to London's. The car has an appeal when the roads allow it. Improving cycling tends to pull people from public transport and vice versa rather than pull people from their cars. Of David Metz' points that stick with me is also that the most effective way to reduce car usage in city centres, in conjunction with improving other means of travel, is to reduce the availability of parking. Also, each city is different: some cities like London are spread wide and the distances are large, some have more cooperative weather, some have a lot of hills, and some are in countries where cars are a significant status symbol. There's no one-size-fits-all.…You, like me, probably dislike being stuck in traffic. If you live in a densely populated area, it's likely that for at least some of the day, a number of the major roads around you are congested, i.e. there's a lot of traffic, and it tends to go slowly. Unfortunately, as I learned with the phrase "Congested equilibrium," from UCL Professor David Metz, there's no magic wand to wave for roads that will run smoothly and get you to your destination with minimal hassle. What is Congested Equilibrium? It's easy to assume that there's a fixed amount of traffic on the roads. So if your local road agency widens, improves, or adds alternative fast roads to get to your destination, you might think that traffic will improve. And it does, but only briefly. Then somehow the traffic jams return. The reality is that in densely populated areas, traffic congestion tends to be self-regulating. When driving is slow and somewhat painful, people who would have driven make other choices: choose not to travel—maybe a video call instead, or just don't go to the shops take a different means of transport such as a train or bike travel earlier or later take different routes After millions in road investment—perhaps widening roads or building a bypass or extended stretch of motorway—traffic runs faster, for a time. But when people realise that roads are again a good option for travel, some of those who had chosen not to drive or didn't use that route before, jump back in the car and make use of the new, improved roads. And the increased traffic once again leads to congestion that gets progressively worse until people decide to make other choices once again. Traffic congestion is a feature of road networks that is very hard to avoid because densely populated areas have a vast reserve of these suppressed trips—people who would drive if the traffic was better—ready to make use of an improved road network when it arrives. From congested equilibrium comes the maxim in travel planning circles: "You can't build your way out of congestion." I learned about congested equilibrium and the general trials and challenges of travel planners in the book Good to go? Decarbonising Travel After the Pandemic by Professor David Metz. Although the book had less to do with decarbonising than I expected, it did teach me a great deal about the challenges and considerations of travel planning. Related Ideas to Congested Equilibrium Marchetti's Constant—as we travelled faster, we travelled farther, maintaining about an hour's daily travel time Laws of Expansion Isochrones Pollution is highly localized: take the back streets Travel choices in London Our Senses are Built to Take in Information at Human Pace Jevons paradox Cobra effect Frequency is freedom, a line from Jarrett Walker about the impact of frequency on public transport. I haven't sketched this yet, but it's so catchy I thought I'd share More I learned About Traffic For the last half a century or so, the average daily travel time has remained unchanged. This is despite huge investments in road networks in urban areas. When I find myself stuck in and complaining about traffic, my mind flashes back to a memory of a billboard in San Francisco that read, "You are not stuck in traffic. You are traffic." Then I feel better about my fellow drivers. What people like least is uncertainty about journey time. So digital navigation, as exemplified by Google Maps, is doing an amazing job at giving us peace of mind here. Until ChatGPT, I put Google Maps as the best app out there. In European cities you tend to find either high public transport use (like London), or a lot of cycling (think Copenhagen). But you don't tend to find high levels of both. Copenhagen's proportion of car journeys is similar to London's. The car has an appeal when the roads allow it. Improving cycling tends to pull people from public transport and vice versa rather than pull people from their cars. Of David Metz' points that stick with me is also that the most effective way to reduce car usage in city centres, in conjunction with improving other means of travel, is to reduce the availability of parking. Also, each city is different: some cities like London are spread wide and the distances are large, some have more cooperative weather, some have a lot of hills, and some are in countries where cars are a significant status symbol. There's no one-size-fits-all.

29 Jun

Calm Like a Duck

Before our first child was born, we attended a series of classes with other expecting couples. The class aimed to prepare us for the joys and challenges of childbirth and the life changes that come with becoming parents. Most parents-to-be were feeling a little anxious. One dad, though, never seemed fazed—he stayed cool through everything. At one point, I asked him how he was so relaxed. He said, "I'm calm like a duck. On the surface, I'm gently floating, but under the water, I'm paddling like crazy." It's over 10 years ago now, but I remember it clearly. It stuck with me for two reasons. First, it's a brilliant analogy for calmness—the two halves of a duck—and makes for a funny picture, which is why I thought it deserved a sketch. Second, it reminds me that when I'm in a stressful situation or feeling nervous, it's easy to look around and see people who seem calm and confident. And if I start thinking I'm the only one feeling anxious, it usually makes it worse. However, when I recall this story, I remember that just because someone looks calm, it doesn't mean they feel calm. They might be "calm like a duck." Under the surface, their legs may be waggling furiously, just like I'm feeling. Michael Caine, in his 2018 book Blowing the Bloody Doors Off: And Other Lessons in Life, said: "Ducks look calm as they glide along the surface of the water but they're paddling like hell underneath. When you're doing your preparation right, it sometimes looks so good that people watching you make the mistake of assuming it's all natural and effortless. In my experience, it never is." In some ways, this misconception is everywhere when we see high performers who make things look easy: A finished book without all the awful first drafts A polished theatre performance without the chaos of rehearsals A calm statement from a leader without the deliberation or doubt that led to it A marathon finish, without the 6 am runs they didn't want to do As a leader, it can help to offer a calm demeanour, but don't mistake the appearance of calm for having everything sorted out. We all have to work hard through times that aren't easy if we want to do great things—even ducks. And Michael Caine. Related Ideas to Calm Like a Duck The First Draft is Always Perfect The Doorstep Mile One in a Row The Best Writing is Re-writing Don't Compare Your Back of House with Others' Front of House Front Stage - Back Stage The excellent QI looked into the source of this quote and had it down to the Japanese practice of duck diplomacy.…Before our first child was born, we attended a series of classes with other expecting couples. The class aimed to prepare us for the joys and challenges of childbirth and the life changes that come with becoming parents. Most parents-to-be were feeling a little anxious. One dad, though, never seemed fazed—he stayed cool through everything. At one point, I asked him how he was so relaxed. He said, "I'm calm like a duck. On the surface, I'm gently floating, but under the water, I'm paddling like crazy." It's over 10 years ago now, but I remember it clearly. It stuck with me for two reasons. First, it's a brilliant analogy for calmness—the two halves of a duck—and makes for a funny picture, which is why I thought it deserved a sketch. Second, it reminds me that when I'm in a stressful situation or feeling nervous, it's easy to look around and see people who seem calm and confident. And if I start thinking I'm the only one feeling anxious, it usually makes it worse. However, when I recall this story, I remember that just because someone looks calm, it doesn't mean they feel calm. They might be "calm like a duck." Under the surface, their legs may be waggling furiously, just like I'm feeling. Michael Caine, in his 2018 book Blowing the Bloody Doors Off: And Other Lessons in Life, said: "Ducks look calm as they glide along the surface of the water but they're paddling like hell underneath. When you're doing your preparation right, it sometimes looks so good that people watching you make the mistake of assuming it's all natural and effortless. In my experience, it never is." In some ways, this misconception is everywhere when we see high performers who make things look easy: A finished book without all the awful first drafts A polished theatre performance without the chaos of rehearsals A calm statement from a leader without the deliberation or doubt that led to it A marathon finish, without the 6 am runs they didn't want to do As a leader, it can help to offer a calm demeanour, but don't mistake the appearance of calm for having everything sorted out. We all have to work hard through times that aren't easy if we want to do great things—even ducks. And Michael Caine. Related Ideas to Calm Like a Duck The First Draft is Always Perfect The Doorstep Mile One in a Row The Best Writing is Re-writing Don't Compare Your Back of House with Others' Front of House Front Stage - Back Stage The excellent QI looked into the source of this quote and had it down to the Japanese practice of duck diplomacy.

22 Jun

To scale, you first have to do things that don't scale, advice from Paul Graham and Brian Chesky of AirBnB for scaling companies shown with a founder packing boxes themselves like Jeff Bezos of Amazon

To Scale, First Do Things That Don't Scale

The startup paradox: grow big by starting small One of the seeming contradictions in a company's journey is that, as Paul Graham, founder of Y Combinator, points out in a well-known essay, to get your company operating at scale, you first have to do things that don't scale. Why does this sometimes seem like a contradiction? If we picture large, successful tech companies, it's easy to imagine all sorts of clever technology and automation that makes everything work automatically. How else would you serve thousands, if not millions, of users simultaneously? In the early days, it's easy to think of a new offering or feature, or even the very core of the business, as "that's too manual, we can't do that," and then keep building and guessing. But the reality is that doing things that don't scale at first is the way many companies get to massive scale. Brian Chesky, founder of Airbnb, shared a classic do things that don't scale example. In the early days, he and his cofounder went door-to-door to the first users of the platform, photographing apartments and asking customers what they could do better. They processed and uploaded photos manually, managing with spreadsheets and some hired help until they later automated the process. Why Do Things That Don't Scale Here are some of the advantages I've seen of starting with things that don't scale: You learn what customers need. The more time you spend close to your customers, ensuring your product works for them, the more empathy you develop for what it's like to be in their shoes. This empathy will help you over and over again. You can start now. Before investing a lot of time building software or figuring out how to automate, you can begin learning immediately. It's cheaper. You don't have to design, spec and build for weeks before launching. Everything you later build will be useful. When running it manually gets too painful, you know that whatever you build to automate the process will help you immediately. You find product-market fit faster. Running things manually helps you experiment and adapt quickly. It's easier to kill things that don't work. It's less painful to stop doing a manual process than to rip out features or code customers aren't using. Examples of Doing Things That Don't Scale It doesn't have to be your whole business—it could be a new feature or tool. If your platform would eventually generate a dashboard automatically, maybe the first ones you just create by hand. If you need to manage people's availability, you can start with a calendar on a whiteboard. Marketplaces that operate at thousands of transactions a day started with a spreadsheet and a phone. Jeff Bezos packed and delivered the first books shipped by Amazon. Hewlett-Packard famously started in a garage. If your business is already at scale and you want to try something new, see if you can run it manually for a small group of users first. If you can make it work for them—fine-tuning out all the issues—then there's a good chance you can scale it more widely. I've personally made the mistake of aiming for scale too early. At my first startup, we spent longer than we should have building what we thought was needed for a system that worked automatically, rather than just getting started—even if it meant taking more manual steps. I've also been part of successful new products and services that we initially ran manually, using spreadsheets and people's effort, before fully automating them, sometimes many months later. As Brian Chesky says: Do it until it hurts, then automate it away. Learn more: Paul Graham's original essay: Do Things that Don't Scale I always recommend the very first Masters of Scale podcast episode with AirBnB's Brian Chesky on this topic. Not directly related, but this short article on the AI agency, and how starting by operating manually, and then using technology to automate and improve efficiency also affected my thinking on this: The AI Agency, Tomasz Tunguz Seth Godin wrote: "The thing is, you don’t get to 3% of the market by trying for 40% and failing. You get there by embracing the 1% and doing such a good job that the word spreads." - Big scale, Big impact, Seth Godin Related Ideas to Do Things That Don't Scale The Business Flywheel Fauxtomation Painkillers and vitamins The Long Nose of Innovation Sexy Value Desire Paths Overnight Success The Knowledge Funnel…The startup paradox: grow big by starting small One of the seeming contradictions in a company's journey is that, as Paul Graham, founder of Y Combinator, points out in a well-known essay, to get your company operating at scale, you first have to do things that don't scale. Why does this sometimes seem like a contradiction? If we picture large, successful tech companies, it's easy to imagine all sorts of clever technology and automation that makes everything work automatically. How else would you serve thousands, if not millions, of users simultaneously? In the early days, it's easy to think of a new offering or feature, or even the very core of the business, as "that's too manual, we can't do that," and then keep building and guessing. But the reality is that doing things that don't scale at first is the way many companies get to massive scale. Brian Chesky, founder of Airbnb, shared a classic do things that don't scale example. In the early days, he and his cofounder went door-to-door to the first users of the platform, photographing apartments and asking customers what they could do better. They processed and uploaded photos manually, managing with spreadsheets and some hired help until they later automated the process. Why Do Things That Don't Scale Here are some of the advantages I've seen of starting with things that don't scale: You learn what customers need. The more time you spend close to your customers, ensuring your product works for them, the more empathy you develop for what it's like to be in their shoes. This empathy will help you over and over again. You can start now. Before investing a lot of time building software or figuring out how to automate, you can begin learning immediately. It's cheaper. You don't have to design, spec and build for weeks before launching. Everything you later build will be useful. When running it manually gets too painful, you know that whatever you build to automate the process will help you immediately. You find product-market fit faster. Running things manually helps you experiment and adapt quickly. It's easier to kill things that don't work. It's less painful to stop doing a manual process than to rip out features or code customers aren't using. Examples of Doing Things That Don't Scale It doesn't have to be your whole business—it could be a new feature or tool. If your platform would eventually generate a dashboard automatically, maybe the first ones you just create by hand. If you need to manage people's availability, you can start with a calendar on a whiteboard. Marketplaces that operate at thousands of transactions a day started with a spreadsheet and a phone. Jeff Bezos packed and delivered the first books shipped by Amazon. Hewlett-Packard famously started in a garage. If your business is already at scale and you want to try something new, see if you can run it manually for a small group of users first. If you can make it work for them—fine-tuning out all the issues—then there's a good chance you can scale it more widely. I've personally made the mistake of aiming for scale too early. At my first startup, we spent longer than we should have building what we thought was needed for a system that worked automatically, rather than just getting started—even if it meant taking more manual steps. I've also been part of successful new products and services that we initially ran manually, using spreadsheets and people's effort, before fully automating them, sometimes many months later. As Brian Chesky says: Do it until it hurts, then automate it away. Learn more: Paul Graham's original essay: Do Things that Don't Scale I always recommend the very first Masters of Scale podcast episode with AirBnB's Brian Chesky on this topic. Not directly related, but this short article on the AI agency, and how starting by operating manually, and then using technology to automate and improve efficiency also affected my thinking on this: The AI Agency, Tomasz Tunguz Seth Godin wrote: "The thing is, you don’t get to 3% of the market by trying for 40% and failing. You get there by embracing the 1% and doing such a good job that the word spreads." - Big scale, Big impact, Seth Godin Related Ideas to Do Things That Don't Scale The Business Flywheel Fauxtomation Painkillers and vitamins The Long Nose of Innovation Sexy Value Desire Paths Overnight Success The Knowledge Funnel

15 Jun

List of common sushi types, explained with names and pictures — a visual guide including nigiri, sashimi, maki rolls (hosomaki, futomaki, uramaki, temaki), inari, chirashi, and temari.

Types of Sushi: Decoding a Sushi Menu

I don't know about you, but I love sushi. We didn't have a Japanese restaurant in the town where I grew up until I hit my 20s. A conversation around sushi was always, "You eat raw fish?!" accompanied by "ew" s and amazement. Of course, since then, I've learned it's delicious. It took me a little while to become familiar with the various types of sushi and how to decipher a sushi menu. I have a lot still to learn, but I wanted to capture the common sushi types—with names and pictures—in case it helps others. I'm not an expert, so if you've got wisdom to share, feel free to write to me. Here's the breakdown reflected in the sketch: Sashimi Raw fish or seafood served on its own or with simple garnishes. Sashimi is not technically sushi, as there's no rice, but it's a classic that's virtually synonymous with sushi. Nigiri A shaped piece of seasoned sushi rice with a slice of fish or other topping laid on top. I've seen the literal translation of nigiri as something like "two hands to make rice ball food." Maki Maki means "rolled" and refers to sushi wrapped in sheets of nori (dried seaweed). Classic maki rolls have the nori on the outside and are sliced into mouthful-sized pieces. The genius of maki, much like the genius of the sandwich, is that it allows you to eat the delicious filling by only touching the nori with your fingers. Here are a few types: Hosomaki - Thin rolls Hosomaki are typically filled with just one ingredient, such as tuna or cucumber. Tekka maki ( tuna roll) was popular in casinos and was sometimes called the "casino roll." Futomaki - Thick rolls Futomaki are much larger than hosomaki and can have several fillings inside. They're often served at festivals and celebrations. Uramaki - Inside-out rolls Uramaki was developed with the California roll and have the rice on the outside, hiding the nori. They're medium-sized and can fit a few more fillings than hosomaki. Incidentally, several people claim to have invented the California roll. Since the California roll, an amazing variety of rolls have been created, such as the rainbow, dragon, spicy tuna, caterpillar, Philadelphia, spider, and others. Temaki - Hand rolls Meaning "roll in hand", the temaki is a little like the burrito of sushi. Wrapping the nori around the filling in a cone shape makes it easy to hold. Other Types of Sushi Inari Named after a Shinto god said to ride a fox and love fried tofu, inari are pouches of fried tofu filled with sushi rice and other fillings. Chirashi Meaning scattered, chirashi is a sushi plate where the chef lays the main ingredients on top of a bed of rice in a bowl. Temari Temari are small, decorative sushi balls. A small ball of rice is wrapped in fish or vegetables, making an amazing-looking snack. The language of sushi is vast, but if you're not fluent yet, I hope this provides a few pointers. If you want to try making your own, which is both fun and delicious, I recommend: Let's Make Sushi! by Chef Andy Matsuda I also created this version with additional callouts. Related sketches Kawaii - the Japanese culture of cute The Open-Air Kitchen Know your b'linis - bellini vs blini Fruit vs Vegetable Cuba libre - Santo libre When drinking tea, just drink tea Hara hachi bu Stock, Broth, Jus Mandarins, clementines, satsumas and tangerines Cuts of beef Gelato, sorbet, ice cream Still more food and drink sketches…I don't know about you, but I love sushi. We didn't have a Japanese restaurant in the town where I grew up until I hit my 20s. A conversation around sushi was always, "You eat raw fish?!" accompanied by "ew" s and amazement. Of course, since then, I've learned it's delicious. It took me a little while to become familiar with the various types of sushi and how to decipher a sushi menu. I have a lot still to learn, but I wanted to capture the common sushi types—with names and pictures—in case it helps others. I'm not an expert, so if you've got wisdom to share, feel free to write to me. Here's the breakdown reflected in the sketch: Sashimi Raw fish or seafood served on its own or with simple garnishes. Sashimi is not technically sushi, as there's no rice, but it's a classic that's virtually synonymous with sushi. Nigiri A shaped piece of seasoned sushi rice with a slice of fish or other topping laid on top. I've seen the literal translation of nigiri as something like "two hands to make rice ball food." Maki Maki means "rolled" and refers to sushi wrapped in sheets of nori (dried seaweed). Classic maki rolls have the nori on the outside and are sliced into mouthful-sized pieces. The genius of maki, much like the genius of the sandwich, is that it allows you to eat the delicious filling by only touching the nori with your fingers. Here are a few types: Hosomaki - Thin rolls Hosomaki are typically filled with just one ingredient, such as tuna or cucumber. Tekka maki ( tuna roll) was popular in casinos and was sometimes called the "casino roll." Futomaki - Thick rolls Futomaki are much larger than hosomaki and can have several fillings inside. They're often served at festivals and celebrations. Uramaki - Inside-out rolls Uramaki was developed with the California roll and have the rice on the outside, hiding the nori. They're medium-sized and can fit a few more fillings than hosomaki. Incidentally, several people claim to have invented the California roll. Since the California roll, an amazing variety of rolls have been created, such as the rainbow, dragon, spicy tuna, caterpillar, Philadelphia, spider, and others. Temaki - Hand rolls Meaning "roll in hand", the temaki is a little like the burrito of sushi. Wrapping the nori around the filling in a cone shape makes it easy to hold. Other Types of Sushi Inari Named after a Shinto god said to ride a fox and love fried tofu, inari are pouches of fried tofu filled with sushi rice and other fillings. Chirashi Meaning scattered, chirashi is a sushi plate where the chef lays the main ingredients on top of a bed of rice in a bowl. Temari Temari are small, decorative sushi balls. A small ball of rice is wrapped in fish or vegetables, making an amazing-looking snack. The language of sushi is vast, but if you're not fluent yet, I hope this provides a few pointers. If you want to try making your own, which is both fun and delicious, I recommend: Let's Make Sushi! by Chef Andy Matsuda I also created this version with additional callouts. Related sketches Kawaii - the Japanese culture of cute The Open-Air Kitchen Know your b'linis - bellini vs blini Fruit vs Vegetable Cuba libre - Santo libre When drinking tea, just drink tea Hara hachi bu Stock, Broth, Jus Mandarins, clementines, satsumas and tangerines Cuts of beef Gelato, sorbet, ice cream Still more food and drink sketches

8 Jun

What is the meaning of cognitive offloading? Shown by delegating our critical thinking to tools like calculators or AI chatbots

Cognitive Offloading: Delegating Our Thinking

I've often found myself wondering how thinking is hard work. If someone gives me a long list of arithmetic to do, it's tempting not to do it. If I have a tricky problem, it's easy to procrastinate and do "easier" stuff instead. Deep reflective thinking, and even shallow thinking that requires holding information in memory, seems like work—ever been tempted to delegate the adding up of scores for a board game? I've never quite figured out where the hard work is in thinking—after all, it's not physically tiring like heading out for a 5-mile run—but it's definitely there. Hence, perhaps the tempting and irresistible rise of cognitive offloading: delegating our thinking tasks so we don't have to do them. We've been cognitive offloading for a long time. When I carried the 2 in a long sum, I was offloading a task for my memory. And I grew up remembering phone numbers rather than dialling a person, and I don't feel the change has made things worse. Hiring employees can be a form of delegating thinking. Using a calculator rather than a slide rule or working something out on paper leaves more room for deeper thinking. Other common examples of cognitive offloading include using notes apps, reminders, calculators, navigation systems, and now AI chatbots. But what about when we can offload the deeper thinking, too, as we can now with AI chatbots? That may leave room for more interesting tasks. Or maybe, like not training my muscles and endurance by going out for a 5-mile run, it reduces my ability for deep thinking. Nicholas Carr discussed a shift to shallow thinking from the pervasive use of the internet in his 2011 book The Shallows. We became proficient at skimming and scanning for answers rather than interrogating and questioning. There's some evidence that more cognitive offloading reduces our critical thinking abilities, and an MIT study showed that "the more help students had from AI, the less their brains worked. People using ChatGPT struggled to remember or quote from the essays they had just written and reported feeling little ownership of their work. By comparison, the essays written by the “brain-only” writers were more original and their brains more active." If a developer uses an AI chatbot in an interview and gives a strong answer, will that make them worse at the job when they would use an AI chatbot on the job anyway? I use ChatGPT as a thinking partner for posts these days. I think that it helps make them better, but who knows what it's really doing to me =) Are Sketchplanations just staying surface-level or engaging some thinking? It would be nice to think that it grinds a few gears. Here's hoping! Related Ideas to Cognitive Offloading The Automation Paradox Don't let your thinking be limited by your tools Build your personal panel of advisors The X–Y Problem Fauxtomation Cognitive overhead Solvitur Ambulando…I've often found myself wondering how thinking is hard work. If someone gives me a long list of arithmetic to do, it's tempting not to do it. If I have a tricky problem, it's easy to procrastinate and do "easier" stuff instead. Deep reflective thinking, and even shallow thinking that requires holding information in memory, seems like work—ever been tempted to delegate the adding up of scores for a board game? I've never quite figured out where the hard work is in thinking—after all, it's not physically tiring like heading out for a 5-mile run—but it's definitely there. Hence, perhaps the tempting and irresistible rise of cognitive offloading: delegating our thinking tasks so we don't have to do them. We've been cognitive offloading for a long time. When I carried the 2 in a long sum, I was offloading a task for my memory. And I grew up remembering phone numbers rather than dialling a person, and I don't feel the change has made things worse. Hiring employees can be a form of delegating thinking. Using a calculator rather than a slide rule or working something out on paper leaves more room for deeper thinking. Other common examples of cognitive offloading include using notes apps, reminders, calculators, navigation systems, and now AI chatbots. But what about when we can offload the deeper thinking, too, as we can now with AI chatbots? That may leave room for more interesting tasks. Or maybe, like not training my muscles and endurance by going out for a 5-mile run, it reduces my ability for deep thinking. Nicholas Carr discussed a shift to shallow thinking from the pervasive use of the internet in his 2011 book The Shallows. We became proficient at skimming and scanning for answers rather than interrogating and questioning. There's some evidence that more cognitive offloading reduces our critical thinking abilities, and an MIT study showed that "the more help students had from AI, the less their brains worked. People using ChatGPT struggled to remember or quote from the essays they had just written and reported feeling little ownership of their work. By comparison, the essays written by the “brain-only” writers were more original and their brains more active." If a developer uses an AI chatbot in an interview and gives a strong answer, will that make them worse at the job when they would use an AI chatbot on the job anyway? I use ChatGPT as a thinking partner for posts these days. I think that it helps make them better, but who knows what it's really doing to me =) Are Sketchplanations just staying surface-level or engaging some thinking? It would be nice to think that it grinds a few gears. Here's hoping! Related Ideas to Cognitive Offloading The Automation Paradox Don't let your thinking be limited by your tools Build your personal panel of advisors The X–Y Problem Fauxtomation Cognitive overhead Solvitur Ambulando

1 Jun

Unknown Unknowns

In a 2002 Pentagon briefing, then U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously said: "Reports that say something hasn't happened are interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones." It wasn't typical media material. It even won Rumsfeld the "Foot in Mouth" award from the Plain English Campaign in 2003. But the idea of unknown unknowns has endured. Awareness—Understanding examples When placed in a 2x2, somewhat like I have done, some people have referred to it as the Rumsfeld Matrix (although he didn't invent it), or the Awareness—Understanding Matrix. I prefer diving straight into Unknown Unknowns as they're the crux of it. For example: Say you find out you're going to have a baby. There's a lot you know and a lot you know you don't: Unknown Knowns — things you know that people know about being a parent and having a baby, but you just don't know them yet. Doing your research and homework transforms these into Known Knowns. Known Knowns are the things you already know (or just learned) you'll need to do when you're a parent. Your baby will need feeding and changing, clothes, a place to sleep etc. You plan for these, you buy clothes, a crib, and learn about breastfeeding or the bottle. Known Unknowns — Things like the baby's gender, or whether they'll arrive early or late. You know you don't know these yet, but you can make a plan either way. Finally, there are Unknown Unknowns — which, in this case, could be that, despite all your plans, you find yourself with twins. Or, say you plan to start a café: Unknown Knowns What you know is knowable, but you don't know it, yet You can find data on the market, the costs, and potential customers. These things can be known through research—others know them—but you didn't know them. Known Knowns What you know you know Your costs, your product, your route to market, everything you learned in your research. You make your plan around these. Known Unknowns What you know you don't know How people will respond to your product, how fast sales will be, and whether your rent will change. Unknown Unknowns What you didn't know you didn't know Just as you launch your café, Starbucks moves in next door, or we hit a global pandemic. It's what you don't know, that you don't know, that gets you. After all, if you knew it, you'd have prepared for it. He Who Knows There's a well-known saying called "He who knows" which relates to Unknown Unknowns: He who knows not, and knows not he knows not, is a fool; shun him. He who knows not, and knows he knows not, is simple; teach him. He who knows, and knows not he knows, is asleep; awaken him. He who knows, and knows he knows, is wise; follow him. Note that, like most interpretations of the Awareness/Knowledge-understanding framework, Unknown Knowns is interpreted as things you know but don't know you know. These might be implicit knowledge that you are yet to make a connection with. Related Ideas to Unknown Unknowns We have a host of sayings and thoughts that relate to this. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan events: if every swan you've ever seen is white, it's easy to assume that all swans are white, but the next one you see could be black. The Lucretius problem, also from Taleb: We tend to believe the biggest event we've seen is the biggest that could happen. For example, we test our financial models against the most significant market crashes, but each was bigger than any that had hit before. In theory, practice is the same as theory, but not in practice. No plan survives contact with the enemy — from Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder Whatever our plans, or what we think we know, or even what we think we know we don't know, we must adapt to succeed. Unknown unknowns evidently weigh heavily on me, as I seem to have drawn many more related ideas: Black Swan events The Lucretius Problem The Johari Window — for self-knowledge The Conscious Competence framework In theory, practice is the same as theory, but not in practice VUCA - Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity OODA Loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, Repeat On mistakes Hindsight bias — everything is obvious after the fact Physics Envy Hofstadter's Law The Cobra Effect The Law of Unintended Consequences Do a 2x2 Matrix…In a 2002 Pentagon briefing, then U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously said: "Reports that say something hasn't happened are interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones." It wasn't typical media material. It even won Rumsfeld the "Foot in Mouth" award from the Plain English Campaign in 2003. But the idea of unknown unknowns has endured. Awareness—Understanding examples When placed in a 2x2, somewhat like I have done, some people have referred to it as the Rumsfeld Matrix (although he didn't invent it), or the Awareness—Understanding Matrix. I prefer diving straight into Unknown Unknowns as they're the crux of it. For example: Say you find out you're going to have a baby. There's a lot you know and a lot you know you don't: Unknown Knowns — things you know that people know about being a parent and having a baby, but you just don't know them yet. Doing your research and homework transforms these into Known Knowns. Known Knowns are the things you already know (or just learned) you'll need to do when you're a parent. Your baby will need feeding and changing, clothes, a place to sleep etc. You plan for these, you buy clothes, a crib, and learn about breastfeeding or the bottle. Known Unknowns — Things like the baby's gender, or whether they'll arrive early or late. You know you don't know these yet, but you can make a plan either way. Finally, there are Unknown Unknowns — which, in this case, could be that, despite all your plans, you find yourself with twins. Or, say you plan to start a café: Unknown Knowns What you know is knowable, but you don't know it, yet You can find data on the market, the costs, and potential customers. These things can be known through research—others know them—but you didn't know them. Known Knowns What you know you know Your costs, your product, your route to market, everything you learned in your research. You make your plan around these. Known Unknowns What you know you don't know How people will respond to your product, how fast sales will be, and whether your rent will change. Unknown Unknowns What you didn't know you didn't know Just as you launch your café, Starbucks moves in next door, or we hit a global pandemic. It's what you don't know, that you don't know, that gets you. After all, if you knew it, you'd have prepared for it. He Who Knows There's a well-known saying called "He who knows" which relates to Unknown Unknowns: He who knows not, and knows not he knows not, is a fool; shun him. He who knows not, and knows he knows not, is simple; teach him. He who knows, and knows not he knows, is asleep; awaken him. He who knows, and knows he knows, is wise; follow him. Note that, like most interpretations of the Awareness/Knowledge-understanding framework, Unknown Knowns is interpreted as things you know but don't know you know. These might be implicit knowledge that you are yet to make a connection with. Related Ideas to Unknown Unknowns We have a host of sayings and thoughts that relate to this. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Black Swan events: if every swan you've ever seen is white, it's easy to assume that all swans are white, but the next one you see could be black. The Lucretius problem, also from Taleb: We tend to believe the biggest event we've seen is the biggest that could happen. For example, we test our financial models against the most significant market crashes, but each was bigger than any that had hit before. In theory, practice is the same as theory, but not in practice. No plan survives contact with the enemy — from Prussian Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke the Elder Whatever our plans, or what we think we know, or even what we think we know we don't know, we must adapt to succeed. Unknown unknowns evidently weigh heavily on me, as I seem to have drawn many more related ideas: Black Swan events The Lucretius Problem The Johari Window — for self-knowledge The Conscious Competence framework In theory, practice is the same as theory, but not in practice VUCA - Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity OODA Loop - Observe, Orient, Decide, Act, Repeat On mistakes Hindsight bias — everything is obvious after the fact Physics Envy Hofstadter's Law The Cobra Effect The Law of Unintended Consequences Do a 2x2 Matrix

25 May

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