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Flatten the Curve illustration: 4 different containment strategies for a contagion outbreak and their expected effect on the number of cases detected over time are shown through a series of distribution curves.

Flatten the curve of an outbreak

Writing this in the middle(?) of the coronavirus outbreak I thought it might be interesting to share these charts, created from the simulations in the excellent Washington Post article “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’” by Harry Stevens. The charts represent different strategies for containment and mitigation of the effects of a contagious outbreak. Trying to quarantine an area — where it is difficult to attain complete quarantine — delays the effect of an outbreak somewhat, but once released the impact is still significant with a potentially high peak of cases. Social-distancing — staying away from each other to reduce the chance of infecting others if you are infected and minimise the chance of infecting yourself — in both the bottom scenarios in the simulation manages to both delay the onset of an outbreak and reduce the peak. Not included in this simple simulation is that reducing peak infections in particular helps the healthcare system effectively treat and care for those who are infected, and look after its healthcare workers. When healthcare is not overwhelmed this further minimises both the spread of a disease and fatality rate. Read the article, run your own simulations, and maybe consider supporting the Washington Post, here: “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to 'flatten the curve’”. Disclaimer: I am not a public health professional. These charts are from my results of the simulations in the article and the simulations represent a simplified, though instructive I think, view of an outbreak and these containment methods. HT: Slava Kremerman…Writing this in the middle(?) of the coronavirus outbreak I thought it might be interesting to share these charts, created from the simulations in the excellent Washington Post article “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to ‘flatten the curve’” by Harry Stevens. The charts represent different strategies for containment and mitigation of the effects of a contagious outbreak. Trying to quarantine an area — where it is difficult to attain complete quarantine — delays the effect of an outbreak somewhat, but once released the impact is still significant with a potentially high peak of cases. Social-distancing — staying away from each other to reduce the chance of infecting others if you are infected and minimise the chance of infecting yourself — in both the bottom scenarios in the simulation manages to both delay the onset of an outbreak and reduce the peak. Not included in this simple simulation is that reducing peak infections in particular helps the healthcare system effectively treat and care for those who are infected, and look after its healthcare workers. When healthcare is not overwhelmed this further minimises both the spread of a disease and fatality rate. Read the article, run your own simulations, and maybe consider supporting the Washington Post, here: “Why outbreaks like the coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to 'flatten the curve’”. Disclaimer: I am not a public health professional. These charts are from my results of the simulations in the article and the simulations represent a simplified, though instructive I think, view of an outbreak and these containment methods. HT: Slava Kremerman

15 Mar 2020

Chindogu

Chindogu are inventions that are not really useful yet are not completely without use. They make sense, but you’d never use them. They are also, as a result, often really funny. This chindogu article gives some great examples while also sharing the 10 tenets of what makes chindogu, chindogu. Things like: there must be the spirit of anarchy — they represent freedom of thought and action. And they must exist — just the idea isn’t enough; they must be made. Apparently, the selfie stick was invented as chindogu but failed as people evidently actually found it useful — though you can still see why it might have started as chindogu. Also see: affordance, forcing function, and more genius from the Japanese: Tsundoku…Chindogu are inventions that are not really useful yet are not completely without use. They make sense, but you’d never use them. They are also, as a result, often really funny. This chindogu article gives some great examples while also sharing the 10 tenets of what makes chindogu, chindogu. Things like: there must be the spirit of anarchy — they represent freedom of thought and action. And they must exist — just the idea isn’t enough; they must be made. Apparently, the selfie stick was invented as chindogu but failed as people evidently actually found it useful — though you can still see why it might have started as chindogu. Also see: affordance, forcing function, and more genius from the Japanese: Tsundoku

7 Mar 2020

How to wash your hands

In these times, and to be honest, most times, washing your hands well is one of the very best things you can do to keep yourself healthy and free from infections. You should use soap if you have it; it should take about 20s, and if you follow these steps, you’ll cover pretty much all of the different parts of your hands. In standard, cursory handwashing, it’s very easy to miss what ought to be obvious places to clean, like your fingertips. Then, try to avoid touching taps and door handles on your way out of public places. I find doing these steps takes about 20s, but to make sure you could also try singing a song segment you like. NPR has some suggestions: Keep flu at bay with a song. Some other hygiene sketches to bear in mind: Sneezes and coughs are powerful things — a sneeze can travel up to 8m. So always make sure you do your… Dracula sneeze Dry your hands with only one towel And as a basic rule…pour don’t dip when sharing snacks The handwashing guidance is from the wonderful NHS.…In these times, and to be honest, most times, washing your hands well is one of the very best things you can do to keep yourself healthy and free from infections. You should use soap if you have it; it should take about 20s, and if you follow these steps, you’ll cover pretty much all of the different parts of your hands. In standard, cursory handwashing, it’s very easy to miss what ought to be obvious places to clean, like your fingertips. Then, try to avoid touching taps and door handles on your way out of public places. I find doing these steps takes about 20s, but to make sure you could also try singing a song segment you like. NPR has some suggestions: Keep flu at bay with a song. Some other hygiene sketches to bear in mind: Sneezes and coughs are powerful things — a sneeze can travel up to 8m. So always make sure you do your… Dracula sneeze Dry your hands with only one towel And as a basic rule…pour don’t dip when sharing snacks The handwashing guidance is from the wonderful NHS.

29 Feb 2020

Types of phishing

Phishing is tricking people into sharing personal details and logins by pretending to be someone else, and it's surprisingly effective. Some of the smartest people I know have been taken in by it and it only takes a moment’s lapse in concentration or uncertainty to fall for it. The maths is simple: it barely costs anything to send an email to 100,000s of people and it only needs a few people to get caught in the net for it to pay off. Also, look out for targeted spear-phishing attacks where scammers may seem to know specific details about yourself to make the attack more credible. Or what’s known as whaling — the targeting of high-profile figures such has heads of companies or celebrities with elaborately planned and sometimes very convincing schemes. Stay vigilant people. You can also check if you’ve been caught in a data breach at: Have I been Pwned. I updated this image for my book Big Ideas Little Pictures Also see: 2-factor authentication…Phishing is tricking people into sharing personal details and logins by pretending to be someone else, and it's surprisingly effective. Some of the smartest people I know have been taken in by it and it only takes a moment’s lapse in concentration or uncertainty to fall for it. The maths is simple: it barely costs anything to send an email to 100,000s of people and it only needs a few people to get caught in the net for it to pay off. Also, look out for targeted spear-phishing attacks where scammers may seem to know specific details about yourself to make the attack more credible. Or what’s known as whaling — the targeting of high-profile figures such has heads of companies or celebrities with elaborately planned and sometimes very convincing schemes. Stay vigilant people. You can also check if you’ve been caught in a data breach at: Have I been Pwned. I updated this image for my book Big Ideas Little Pictures Also see: 2-factor authentication

23 Feb 2020

The dangers of just this once

Clayton Christensen, in his book and article ’How will you measure your life?’, discusses what he learned about how to live a life of integrity. Among other things he says: It’s easier to hold to your principles 100% of the time than it is to hold to them 98% of the time. If you give in to “just this once,”…you’ll regret where you end up. You’ve got to define for yourself what you stand for and draw the line in a safe place. I think this is relevant, both in the small things — whether to work out today when it’s raining — and in the larger decisions which help us be proud of our lives. Here's Clayton Christensen telling his story that illustrates this principle in person (video).…Clayton Christensen, in his book and article ’How will you measure your life?’, discusses what he learned about how to live a life of integrity. Among other things he says: It’s easier to hold to your principles 100% of the time than it is to hold to them 98% of the time. If you give in to “just this once,”…you’ll regret where you end up. You’ve got to define for yourself what you stand for and draw the line in a safe place. I think this is relevant, both in the small things — whether to work out today when it’s raining — and in the larger decisions which help us be proud of our lives. Here's Clayton Christensen telling his story that illustrates this principle in person (video).

16 Feb 2020

Thunderclap or rumble

If you’ve ever been close enough to lightning when it strikes you may be familiar with the startling high frequency thunderclap or crack it makes. But the high frequency soundwaves of the clap are attenuated by their travel through the air away from the source so that from a kilometre or so away all you hear is the growling of the thunder rumbling away as it clatters and rebounds off everywhere it hits. I learned about this from Randall Munroe’s fun book How to: Absurd scientific advice for common real-world problems.…If you’ve ever been close enough to lightning when it strikes you may be familiar with the startling high frequency thunderclap or crack it makes. But the high frequency soundwaves of the clap are attenuated by their travel through the air away from the source so that from a kilometre or so away all you hear is the growling of the thunder rumbling away as it clatters and rebounds off everywhere it hits. I learned about this from Randall Munroe’s fun book How to: Absurd scientific advice for common real-world problems.

9 Feb 2020

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