Sketchplanations - A weekly explanation in a sketch

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Explaining the world one sketch at a time

The Lucretius problem

The Lucretius problem is our tendency to believe that the worst possible thing that can happen is the worst possible thing we know has happened. The name was given by Nicolas Taleb in his book Antifragile. So, should we plan to stress test an investment portfolio, for example, we might test it against how it fared in the worst market crash. Or stress test a building for the biggest known earthquake or a nuclear reactor for the biggest known tsunami. And yet, when each of these events happened, they were bigger than what had come before, and the same could happen again. Lucretius was a Roman philosopher who wrote that: "The fool believes that the tallest mountain in the world will be equal to the tallest one he has observed." Also known as The Lucretius underestimation. See other sketchplanations on cognitive biases.…The Lucretius problem is our tendency to believe that the worst possible thing that can happen is the worst possible thing we know has happened. The name was given by Nicolas Taleb in his book Antifragile. So, should we plan to stress test an investment portfolio, for example, we might test it against how it fared in the worst market crash. Or stress test a building for the biggest known earthquake or a nuclear reactor for the biggest known tsunami. And yet, when each of these events happened, they were bigger than what had come before, and the same could happen again. Lucretius was a Roman philosopher who wrote that: "The fool believes that the tallest mountain in the world will be equal to the tallest one he has observed." Also known as The Lucretius underestimation. See other sketchplanations on cognitive biases.

17 Mar 2018

Seasons

The Earth’s tilt causes the changing seasons. As the Earth revolves around the sun, the tilt of its axis—23.5 degrees—causes the two hemispheres, North and South, to be either tilted towards the sun or away from it at different times of the year. In Winter, because light from the sun hits at a greater angle and closer to the poles, the solar energy gets spread over a larger area. This makes it weaker and cooler and gives rise to colder weather (aka winter). In summer, the sun's light hits more directly and is closer to the equator, so it’s concentrated on a smaller area, leading to hotter days. Because of the tile of the earth, seasons are reversed in the two hemispheres, so if it’s winter in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s summer in the Southern and vice-versa. The further from the equator you go, the bigger the effect of the seasons. As an example, temperatures in Ecuador stay relatively constant throughout the year, while the poles experience extremes of 24-hour daylight or 24-hour night and great freezes and thaws. A version of this sketch, along with a number of other planetary and seasonal ideas, features in my book Big Ideas Little Pictures Also see: Autumn leaves Equinox Solstice…The Earth’s tilt causes the changing seasons. As the Earth revolves around the sun, the tilt of its axis—23.5 degrees—causes the two hemispheres, North and South, to be either tilted towards the sun or away from it at different times of the year. In Winter, because light from the sun hits at a greater angle and closer to the poles, the solar energy gets spread over a larger area. This makes it weaker and cooler and gives rise to colder weather (aka winter). In summer, the sun's light hits more directly and is closer to the equator, so it’s concentrated on a smaller area, leading to hotter days. Because of the tile of the earth, seasons are reversed in the two hemispheres, so if it’s winter in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s summer in the Southern and vice-versa. The further from the equator you go, the bigger the effect of the seasons. As an example, temperatures in Ecuador stay relatively constant throughout the year, while the poles experience extremes of 24-hour daylight or 24-hour night and great freezes and thaws. A version of this sketch, along with a number of other planetary and seasonal ideas, features in my book Big Ideas Little Pictures Also see: Autumn leaves Equinox Solstice

10 Mar 2018

Lake-effect snow

Lake Effect Snow is a phenomenon where crazy amounts of snow can fall in massive storms on a lake’s downwind—leeward—side. Where the effect is pronounced, to the east of some of the Great Lakes in the U.S. (think Buffalo), it’s responsible for the regions known as the snow belt. It works like this: Cold air blows over a lake. As the cold air passes over the warmer lake, it picks up water vapor from the water, which warms the air. This causes the air to rise and, in turn, cool, such that when it reaches the downwind side of the lake, it has become cold and moist. This simple change can lead to some incredible snowstorms dumping 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour. Satellite pictures show it in action pretty clearly. If there is a rise in land elevation along the path of the cold air, the air can cool faster and increase the effect — and also cause a rain shadow. And if there’s a lot of convection and the air rises quickly, you can even get what’s called thundersnow—a thunderstorm in a snowstorm. Stay warm out there. More Weather Sketches Find the weather interesting? Me too. Also see: Dirty thunderstorms Thunderclouds Yesterday’s weather (applying weather forecasting to productivity forecasting) Rain shadow Lenticular clouds Know your cirrostratus from your altocumulus British weather Banner clouds For everyday weather-related phenomena explained, see Dennis Mersereau’s The Skies Above: Storm Clouds, Blood Moons, and Other Everyday Phenomena, Mountaineers Books (2022). Dennis is also the source of the lovely phrase Nature’s greatest snow machine.…Lake Effect Snow is a phenomenon where crazy amounts of snow can fall in massive storms on a lake’s downwind—leeward—side. Where the effect is pronounced, to the east of some of the Great Lakes in the U.S. (think Buffalo), it’s responsible for the regions known as the snow belt. It works like this: Cold air blows over a lake. As the cold air passes over the warmer lake, it picks up water vapor from the water, which warms the air. This causes the air to rise and, in turn, cool, such that when it reaches the downwind side of the lake, it has become cold and moist. This simple change can lead to some incredible snowstorms dumping 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour. Satellite pictures show it in action pretty clearly. If there is a rise in land elevation along the path of the cold air, the air can cool faster and increase the effect — and also cause a rain shadow. And if there’s a lot of convection and the air rises quickly, you can even get what’s called thundersnow—a thunderstorm in a snowstorm. Stay warm out there. More Weather Sketches Find the weather interesting? Me too. Also see: Dirty thunderstorms Thunderclouds Yesterday’s weather (applying weather forecasting to productivity forecasting) Rain shadow Lenticular clouds Know your cirrostratus from your altocumulus British weather Banner clouds For everyday weather-related phenomena explained, see Dennis Mersereau’s The Skies Above: Storm Clouds, Blood Moons, and Other Everyday Phenomena, Mountaineers Books (2022). Dennis is also the source of the lovely phrase Nature’s greatest snow machine.

3 Mar 2018

Gaslighting

Manipulating someone psychologically such that they start to doubt their own sanity. Lying or deceiving persistently can plant seeds of self-doubt in the minds of someone else. At first, it is likely to be easy to resist, but if it continues people can start to question their own reality or start to think they may be going crazy. The term comes from the play Gas light by Patrick Hamilton where a husband tries to convince his wife, played by Ingrid Bergman in a 1944 film adaptation, that she imagined the dimming of gas lights in their house, which was, in fact, due to him searching for jewels in the flat above. The term has been used in sociological, psychiatric and political contexts among others. HT: Shawn Riedel…Manipulating someone psychologically such that they start to doubt their own sanity. Lying or deceiving persistently can plant seeds of self-doubt in the minds of someone else. At first, it is likely to be easy to resist, but if it continues people can start to question their own reality or start to think they may be going crazy. The term comes from the play Gas light by Patrick Hamilton where a husband tries to convince his wife, played by Ingrid Bergman in a 1944 film adaptation, that she imagined the dimming of gas lights in their house, which was, in fact, due to him searching for jewels in the flat above. The term has been used in sociological, psychiatric and political contexts among others. HT: Shawn Riedel

24 Feb 2018

The Oxford comma

The Oxford comma is the comma after the penultimate item in a list. It’s normally a matter of style — you can happily choose to leave it out — though in some cases it can clarify what would otherwise be an ambiguous meaning, as in this well-cited book dedication “To my parents, Ayn Rand and God.” Or, more pertinently, in a recent legal case where ambiguity hinging on the lack of an Oxford comma is costing a dairy firm a $5m overtime payment to its drivers. HT: Jon Hoare…The Oxford comma is the comma after the penultimate item in a list. It’s normally a matter of style — you can happily choose to leave it out — though in some cases it can clarify what would otherwise be an ambiguous meaning, as in this well-cited book dedication “To my parents, Ayn Rand and God.” Or, more pertinently, in a recent legal case where ambiguity hinging on the lack of an Oxford comma is costing a dairy firm a $5m overtime payment to its drivers. HT: Jon Hoare

17 Feb 2018

How to grow your own fresh air

UPDATE: Since releasing this sketch, which is a fair summary of Kamal Meattle's TED talk, it's been made clear that, though plants do improve air quality, the improvement doesn't compare with a simple change like opening the window. NASA conducted the original "Plants Improve Air Quality" study in an environment wholly unlike having a few plants in your living room. Listen to James Wong explain the situation in the Sketchplanations botany podcast. Original text: In his 4-minute TED talk, Kamal Meattle explains how to grow your own fresh air inside with just three common house plants. The areca palm works hard during the day, the mother-in-law’s tongue during the night, and the money plant cleans out volatile chemicals. He transformed the air inside a New Delhi office park by filling it with these three plants with seemingly some wonderful health and productivity benefits. Though plants are undoubtedly lovely to add to your office and home, see the update above for the caution around their potential to freshen your air.…UPDATE: Since releasing this sketch, which is a fair summary of Kamal Meattle's TED talk, it's been made clear that, though plants do improve air quality, the improvement doesn't compare with a simple change like opening the window. NASA conducted the original "Plants Improve Air Quality" study in an environment wholly unlike having a few plants in your living room. Listen to James Wong explain the situation in the Sketchplanations botany podcast. Original text: In his 4-minute TED talk, Kamal Meattle explains how to grow your own fresh air inside with just three common house plants. The areca palm works hard during the day, the mother-in-law’s tongue during the night, and the money plant cleans out volatile chemicals. He transformed the air inside a New Delhi office park by filling it with these three plants with seemingly some wonderful health and productivity benefits. Though plants are undoubtedly lovely to add to your office and home, see the update above for the caution around their potential to freshen your air.

10 Feb 2018

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