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Hanlon's Razor

Hanlon's Razor is the adage: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." Or sometimes, "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence." It appears in a similar form by the inimitable Johann Wolfgang von Goethe as, "And I have again observed, my dear friend, in this trifling affair, that misunderstandings and neglect occasion more mischief in the world than even malice and wickedness. At all events, the two latter are of less frequent occurrence," in The Sorrows of Young Werther. The same sentiments are also shared by William James, Churchill, and H.G. Wells. More recently, Douglas Hubbard gave a more modern version in his book The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It: "Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system." The mistake of assuming bad intentions was brought home to me when puzzling why people kept leaving paper towels in the sinks of the bathrooms at university. How hard is it to put them in the bin?? A year after assuming my fellow students were either lazy or inconsiderate or both, I was washing my hands when another student dried his hands on the towel, walked to the door, opened it by covering the handle with the paper towel — presumably to avoid the germs — and then aimed his paper towel at the bin which was between the sinks. He missed, and it landed in the sink as he walked off down the corridor. Suddenly, it was clear to me that the hygiene of the door handle was higher in consideration of towel-in-the-sink people than whether or not their towel hit their target (and whether it was worth checking if their towel had hit the bin). It made sense. Someone later moved the bin next to the door, and it didn't happen again. Besides towels in sinks, I've seen people get mad at others pushing in line when the pushers-in didn't realise other people were queuing. I've seen drivers shouting at another driver who's in blissful ignorance of the trouble they've caused. I've seen agents blamed for terrible customer service when the system is at fault, and customer service blame users when the product is at fault. I've seen people despairing at others leaving litter in the park or on the street when animals had dragged out the mess overnight. I've seen people vilified for not moving down on a train when they weren't aware of the squeeze at the other end. And, usually, I think people aren't smart or capable enough, or in fact wicked enough, to carry out the conspiracies that people credit them for. Very often it's the person assuming bad intentions and getting mad who suffers the most. To be sure, there are different degrees of negligence. We can all make mistakes, but if you're doing your taxes, it's not okay to make a mistake because you didn't read the instructions. If you're standing on a busy train, you owe it to others to be aware that you may be blocking an aisle, and we should do our best to make sure our rubbish stays where we put it. But none of us are perfect and so often I think Hanlon's Razor has some truth to it. Perhaps a better formulation of Hanlon's Razor would be, "Before attributing to malice, try attributing to incompetence." But I'm not a fan of the wording with 'stupidity' or 'incompetence'. Awareness is so often the necessary start and what's missing. Since posting this, a few people also shared with me Clarke's Corollary: "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." And another relevant name for a similar situation is Cock-up Over Conspiracy. Source for Hanlon's Razor Hanlon's Razor, which encourages us first to consider innocent mistakes rather than assuming ill will, was a submission to Murphy's Law, book two: more reasons why things go wrong, by Arthur Bloch (p52). Murphy's Law is "If anything can go wrong, it will." I've also previously covered Muphry's Law, where, when criticising spelling or grammar, you will make a spelling or grammar mistake yourself. Related Ideas to Hanlon's Razor Also see: Fundamental Attribution Error (someone shared Hanlon's Razor with me on posting this) Attribution bias Self-serving bias More conjectures and thinking named after people: Chesterton's fence Russell's teapot Bloom's taxonomy Maslow's hierarchy Muphry's Law The Peter Principle The Generalised Peter Principle Hofstadter's Law…Hanlon's Razor is the adage: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." Or sometimes, "Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence." It appears in a similar form by the inimitable Johann Wolfgang von Goethe as, "And I have again observed, my dear friend, in this trifling affair, that misunderstandings and neglect occasion more mischief in the world than even malice and wickedness. At all events, the two latter are of less frequent occurrence," in The Sorrows of Young Werther. The same sentiments are also shared by William James, Churchill, and H.G. Wells. More recently, Douglas Hubbard gave a more modern version in his book The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It: "Never attribute to malice or stupidity that which can be explained by moderately rational individuals following incentives in a complex system." The mistake of assuming bad intentions was brought home to me when puzzling why people kept leaving paper towels in the sinks of the bathrooms at university. How hard is it to put them in the bin?? A year after assuming my fellow students were either lazy or inconsiderate or both, I was washing my hands when another student dried his hands on the towel, walked to the door, opened it by covering the handle with the paper towel — presumably to avoid the germs — and then aimed his paper towel at the bin which was between the sinks. He missed, and it landed in the sink as he walked off down the corridor. Suddenly, it was clear to me that the hygiene of the door handle was higher in consideration of towel-in-the-sink people than whether or not their towel hit their target (and whether it was worth checking if their towel had hit the bin). It made sense. Someone later moved the bin next to the door, and it didn't happen again. Besides towels in sinks, I've seen people get mad at others pushing in line when the pushers-in didn't realise other people were queuing. I've seen drivers shouting at another driver who's in blissful ignorance of the trouble they've caused. I've seen agents blamed for terrible customer service when the system is at fault, and customer service blame users when the product is at fault. I've seen people despairing at others leaving litter in the park or on the street when animals had dragged out the mess overnight. I've seen people vilified for not moving down on a train when they weren't aware of the squeeze at the other end. And, usually, I think people aren't smart or capable enough, or in fact wicked enough, to carry out the conspiracies that people credit them for. Very often it's the person assuming bad intentions and getting mad who suffers the most. To be sure, there are different degrees of negligence. We can all make mistakes, but if you're doing your taxes, it's not okay to make a mistake because you didn't read the instructions. If you're standing on a busy train, you owe it to others to be aware that you may be blocking an aisle, and we should do our best to make sure our rubbish stays where we put it. But none of us are perfect and so often I think Hanlon's Razor has some truth to it. Perhaps a better formulation of Hanlon's Razor would be, "Before attributing to malice, try attributing to incompetence." But I'm not a fan of the wording with 'stupidity' or 'incompetence'. Awareness is so often the necessary start and what's missing. Since posting this, a few people also shared with me Clarke's Corollary: "Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice." And another relevant name for a similar situation is Cock-up Over Conspiracy. Source for Hanlon's Razor Hanlon's Razor, which encourages us first to consider innocent mistakes rather than assuming ill will, was a submission to Murphy's Law, book two: more reasons why things go wrong, by Arthur Bloch (p52). Murphy's Law is "If anything can go wrong, it will." I've also previously covered Muphry's Law, where, when criticising spelling or grammar, you will make a spelling or grammar mistake yourself. Related Ideas to Hanlon's Razor Also see: Fundamental Attribution Error (someone shared Hanlon's Razor with me on posting this) Attribution bias Self-serving bias More conjectures and thinking named after people: Chesterton's fence Russell's teapot Bloom's taxonomy Maslow's hierarchy Muphry's Law The Peter Principle The Generalised Peter Principle Hofstadter's Law

8 Sep 2024

Kawaii

Kawaii is the word for the Japanese culture of cute, adorable and childlike. When you see a sushi roll with a cute smiley face, that's Kawaii at work. You might also find it in an innocent, high voice like a child's. I love how, by adding a couple of big eyes, maybe with a couple of little highlights, a smiley mouth and perhaps a little shy blushing on the cheek, it's possible to transform a cactus or a pencil case into something adorable. As a family, we've enjoyed the card game Sushi Go, which includes cute wasabi, fried shrimp, and even a chopstick holder. It's a bit like the magic of adding googly eyes to anything to make it fun. The childlike simplicity, sweetness and cute artwork of Kawaii is also in Sanrio's Hello Kitty. Also see: The rules of cute Lego faces More lovely stuff from Japan: Wabi-sabi Kintsugi Tsundoku Ma Hara hachi bu I liked chindogu, the art of unuseless inventions, so much I accidentally sketched it twice: chindōgu back-scratching t-shirt, the 3 tenets of chindōgu…Kawaii is the word for the Japanese culture of cute, adorable and childlike. When you see a sushi roll with a cute smiley face, that's Kawaii at work. You might also find it in an innocent, high voice like a child's. I love how, by adding a couple of big eyes, maybe with a couple of little highlights, a smiley mouth and perhaps a little shy blushing on the cheek, it's possible to transform a cactus or a pencil case into something adorable. As a family, we've enjoyed the card game Sushi Go, which includes cute wasabi, fried shrimp, and even a chopstick holder. It's a bit like the magic of adding googly eyes to anything to make it fun. The childlike simplicity, sweetness and cute artwork of Kawaii is also in Sanrio's Hello Kitty. Also see: The rules of cute Lego faces More lovely stuff from Japan: Wabi-sabi Kintsugi Tsundoku Ma Hara hachi bu I liked chindogu, the art of unuseless inventions, so much I accidentally sketched it twice: chindōgu back-scratching t-shirt, the 3 tenets of chindōgu

1 Sep 2024

Buoyancy

It’s always been mind-boggling to me how some of the largest and heaviest things we build on Earth are ships that float on water. Cruise ships are like floating towns, some able to accommodate over 5,000 people. How can it be that these gigantic, impossibly heavy objects made of steel can float on water? The key is displacement and realising the considerable weight that the water already supports. In a lake or ocean, each drop of water is supported by the water around it. 1m³ of fresh water weighs 1 metric tonne, which is 1,000 kg. If a ship displaces 1m³ of water, the buoyant force of the surrounding water supports 1 tonne of the ship’s weight. Therefore, a ship weighing 50,000 tonnes will just float if it displaces 50,000m³ of water. Sea water contains salt, which makes it denser than freshwater. As the denser water supports a greater weight, a ship will float slightly higher in salt water than in fresh. The International Load Line, previously called the Plimsoll line, shows how deep a boat sits in the water. To realise the immense power of water, you can try submerging a biscuit tin in a bath. It’ll put up quite a fight. Also see: Plimsoll line Watch out for barnacles Sonic boom Iceberg orientation Siphon…It’s always been mind-boggling to me how some of the largest and heaviest things we build on Earth are ships that float on water. Cruise ships are like floating towns, some able to accommodate over 5,000 people. How can it be that these gigantic, impossibly heavy objects made of steel can float on water? The key is displacement and realising the considerable weight that the water already supports. In a lake or ocean, each drop of water is supported by the water around it. 1m³ of fresh water weighs 1 metric tonne, which is 1,000 kg. If a ship displaces 1m³ of water, the buoyant force of the surrounding water supports 1 tonne of the ship’s weight. Therefore, a ship weighing 50,000 tonnes will just float if it displaces 50,000m³ of water. Sea water contains salt, which makes it denser than freshwater. As the denser water supports a greater weight, a ship will float slightly higher in salt water than in fresh. The International Load Line, previously called the Plimsoll line, shows how deep a boat sits in the water. To realise the immense power of water, you can try submerging a biscuit tin in a bath. It’ll put up quite a fight. Also see: Plimsoll line Watch out for barnacles Sonic boom Iceberg orientation Siphon

25 Aug 2024

Kitchen table survival skills

Kitchen table survival skills are survival skills you can put into practice from your kitchen table. I humbly submit my set of tried and tested (and at times learned from bitter experience) non-glamorous, but effective, kitchen table survival skills: Checking the weather There's not always a choice, but having a good handle on the weather (know your clouds) can mean the difference between a nice day out and a disaster. Sensible route planning As Alistair Humphrey's writes in his book Local, "Unfolding a map is the ritual that launches all good journeys." There's art and science in route planning—considering the needs and abilities of your party, the terrain, the effect of the weather or altitude, availability of water, interest and views, access, timing, trail condition and more. So many varied aspects go into it. When planning a family hike now, we weigh up a very different set of factors than we did for two fit twenty-somethings happy to endure a little hardship. Telling someone where you're going If you're going to the wilderness, go with somebody if you can, and leave your intended plan with friends or family back home. If you're not back when expected, at least you'll have someone looking out for you, and a rescue party will know where to start looking. Hiring a guide OK, so it doesn't seem like a survival skill exactly, but going with a local guide will work wonders for your survival. You might not need one for a walk in the local woods, but if you fancy hiking on a glacier or venturing down a river, and it's not something you do too often, then hiring a guide will be the best survival decision you make. Reading up on your route Sure, you can head out and figure it out when you're out there, but mountains, and wilderness generally, are capricious places. There's so much a good hiking book, or a recent trip report can teach you before you set out. Is a river crossable? Is there still snow on a pass? Are the mosquitoes out in force? How long is it likely to take? How much up and down will there be? Where can you camp? And on and on. Taking the right gear Whenever I've been on semi-serious expeditions, I've been very impressed with the kit lists provided by our guides. Every item is carefully chosen—like, say, bringing the 10 essentials—and lists are refined and revisited after each trip. It's rarely exciting assembling your kit and running through lists, but if it means you remembered spare batteries, the water filter, mosquito repellent, or a fire lighter it may prove your saving grace in the wild. More mundane perhaps, but still helpful, is packing your gear in the right places and order in which you'll use it. You're much more likely to stop and put on sun lotion or a warm hat if it isn't stuffed under your sleeping bag in the depths of your backpack. Staying within your limits When we're tired, it's easy to make poor decisions. The best defence I know for this is to plan trips within your limits so you aren't trying to find a camp spot in the dark, feeling too tired to filter the water, or too tired to keep track of where you're going. After a long day, it's easy to start skipping the things that keep us safe, like putting on an extra layer or stopping for water. A guide once told me, "don't be too lazy to be comfortable." Keeping track of time A small, but very useful practice, I've adopted is having a good awareness of time on your excursions. Plan in advance and estimate how long different sections may take. Making a mental note of when you set off from the trailhead or from a rest stop gives you a sense of your progress, lets you know what it might take to get back if you need to, and teaches you how far you might get ahead of you. If your pace is changing, you'll have a good idea of how strong everyone is still feeling. Knowing when the sun rises and sets and how much daylight you have left means you're less likely to find yourselves in the dark without a headlamp. I'm sure you might have more to add to the list. This set came from reflecting on our survival skills before a brilliant chat with Brendan Leonard of the excellent Semi-rad about all things Ultra on the Sketchplanations podcast (episode out in Autumn 2024). Growing up in the 80s, for me survival skills were things Crocodile Dundee had, or perhaps MacGyver. More recently, Bear Grylls would demonstrate making a shelter in the jungle, starting fires, or catching salmon to survive in the wild. However, I realised that my survival skills were much less glamorous, but still rather effective, and most of them are used before I head out on a trip. In other words, my survival skills are ones that mean (touch wood) I don't get into a scrape that need the traditional survival skills most of us think of. As with so much in life, it's often the unglamorous stuff that makes the difference, like showing up every day, replicating before innovating, writing a rubbish first draft, or re-writing. I hope this set may keep your expeditions Type I or Type II fun, rather than Type III. Also see: The fun scale The 10 essentials Why camp 50yd from water The automation paradox Don't make important decisions on an empty stomach Glacial erratic Microadventure Perhaps you were really expecting something about a kitchen table: how to set a table…Kitchen table survival skills are survival skills you can put into practice from your kitchen table. I humbly submit my set of tried and tested (and at times learned from bitter experience) non-glamorous, but effective, kitchen table survival skills: Checking the weather There's not always a choice, but having a good handle on the weather (know your clouds) can mean the difference between a nice day out and a disaster. Sensible route planning As Alistair Humphrey's writes in his book Local, "Unfolding a map is the ritual that launches all good journeys." There's art and science in route planning—considering the needs and abilities of your party, the terrain, the effect of the weather or altitude, availability of water, interest and views, access, timing, trail condition and more. So many varied aspects go into it. When planning a family hike now, we weigh up a very different set of factors than we did for two fit twenty-somethings happy to endure a little hardship. Telling someone where you're going If you're going to the wilderness, go with somebody if you can, and leave your intended plan with friends or family back home. If you're not back when expected, at least you'll have someone looking out for you, and a rescue party will know where to start looking. Hiring a guide OK, so it doesn't seem like a survival skill exactly, but going with a local guide will work wonders for your survival. You might not need one for a walk in the local woods, but if you fancy hiking on a glacier or venturing down a river, and it's not something you do too often, then hiring a guide will be the best survival decision you make. Reading up on your route Sure, you can head out and figure it out when you're out there, but mountains, and wilderness generally, are capricious places. There's so much a good hiking book, or a recent trip report can teach you before you set out. Is a river crossable? Is there still snow on a pass? Are the mosquitoes out in force? How long is it likely to take? How much up and down will there be? Where can you camp? And on and on. Taking the right gear Whenever I've been on semi-serious expeditions, I've been very impressed with the kit lists provided by our guides. Every item is carefully chosen—like, say, bringing the 10 essentials—and lists are refined and revisited after each trip. It's rarely exciting assembling your kit and running through lists, but if it means you remembered spare batteries, the water filter, mosquito repellent, or a fire lighter it may prove your saving grace in the wild. More mundane perhaps, but still helpful, is packing your gear in the right places and order in which you'll use it. You're much more likely to stop and put on sun lotion or a warm hat if it isn't stuffed under your sleeping bag in the depths of your backpack. Staying within your limits When we're tired, it's easy to make poor decisions. The best defence I know for this is to plan trips within your limits so you aren't trying to find a camp spot in the dark, feeling too tired to filter the water, or too tired to keep track of where you're going. After a long day, it's easy to start skipping the things that keep us safe, like putting on an extra layer or stopping for water. A guide once told me, "don't be too lazy to be comfortable." Keeping track of time A small, but very useful practice, I've adopted is having a good awareness of time on your excursions. Plan in advance and estimate how long different sections may take. Making a mental note of when you set off from the trailhead or from a rest stop gives you a sense of your progress, lets you know what it might take to get back if you need to, and teaches you how far you might get ahead of you. If your pace is changing, you'll have a good idea of how strong everyone is still feeling. Knowing when the sun rises and sets and how much daylight you have left means you're less likely to find yourselves in the dark without a headlamp. I'm sure you might have more to add to the list. This set came from reflecting on our survival skills before a brilliant chat with Brendan Leonard of the excellent Semi-rad about all things Ultra on the Sketchplanations podcast (episode out in Autumn 2024). Growing up in the 80s, for me survival skills were things Crocodile Dundee had, or perhaps MacGyver. More recently, Bear Grylls would demonstrate making a shelter in the jungle, starting fires, or catching salmon to survive in the wild. However, I realised that my survival skills were much less glamorous, but still rather effective, and most of them are used before I head out on a trip. In other words, my survival skills are ones that mean (touch wood) I don't get into a scrape that need the traditional survival skills most of us think of. As with so much in life, it's often the unglamorous stuff that makes the difference, like showing up every day, replicating before innovating, writing a rubbish first draft, or re-writing. I hope this set may keep your expeditions Type I or Type II fun, rather than Type III. Also see: The fun scale The 10 essentials Why camp 50yd from water The automation paradox Don't make important decisions on an empty stomach Glacial erratic Microadventure Perhaps you were really expecting something about a kitchen table: how to set a table

18 Aug 2024

Gestalt principles

The Gestalt principles of visual perception describe how our brains make sense of what we see. For example, they explain how we associate a photo with the text of a newspaper article or understand a series of words as a sentence on a billboard. These principles originated from the field of Gestalt psychology in the early twentieth century. In laying out sketches, I try to consider how a viewer will understand what connects with what, the order in which the viewer will read the sketch with their eye, and how colour or formatting link related elements—skim through the back catalogue to see it in action. In creating each sketch, consciously and unconsciously, I use many of the standard Gestalt principles of design. There are many Gestalt principles and some variations in the names. I chose seven common principles to illustrate: Proximity Objects that are close together are perceived as a group Similarity Similar objects are perceived as a group Continuity Elements on a line or curve are related Closure Completing missing parts of images to create a whole Figure-Ground Identifying what's in the foreground or background Symmetry & Order Perceiving symmetrical or orderly elements as a group Common Fate Objects moving together are perceived as part of a group The Gestalt principles are helpful for information design, user interface design, user experience design, graphic design and just about any design. It is also fascinating to spot how you unconsciously use them when interpreting designs you see. For example, look at the signs in an airport, a menu, or a page of your favourite app and see which principles are in play. The Interaction Design Foundation has a great article on the Gestalt principles that explains their use in design in more depth. You'll also find many others. Also see sketches on: UX Information design Graphic design Web design The isolation effect…The Gestalt principles of visual perception describe how our brains make sense of what we see. For example, they explain how we associate a photo with the text of a newspaper article or understand a series of words as a sentence on a billboard. These principles originated from the field of Gestalt psychology in the early twentieth century. In laying out sketches, I try to consider how a viewer will understand what connects with what, the order in which the viewer will read the sketch with their eye, and how colour or formatting link related elements—skim through the back catalogue to see it in action. In creating each sketch, consciously and unconsciously, I use many of the standard Gestalt principles of design. There are many Gestalt principles and some variations in the names. I chose seven common principles to illustrate: Proximity Objects that are close together are perceived as a group Similarity Similar objects are perceived as a group Continuity Elements on a line or curve are related Closure Completing missing parts of images to create a whole Figure-Ground Identifying what's in the foreground or background Symmetry & Order Perceiving symmetrical or orderly elements as a group Common Fate Objects moving together are perceived as part of a group The Gestalt principles are helpful for information design, user interface design, user experience design, graphic design and just about any design. It is also fascinating to spot how you unconsciously use them when interpreting designs you see. For example, look at the signs in an airport, a menu, or a page of your favourite app and see which principles are in play. The Interaction Design Foundation has a great article on the Gestalt principles that explains their use in design in more depth. You'll also find many others. Also see sketches on: UX Information design Graphic design Web design The isolation effect

11 Aug 2024

The Olympic Flag

The Olympic Flag, which consists of five interlocking coloured rings, was created by Frenchman Pierre de Coubertin, the founder of the modern Olympic games, and unveiled in 1914. Coubertin said that the five rings represent the five parts of the world embracing "Olympism" and competing against each other: Africa, The Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania. The interlacing of the rings represents the unity and coming together of athletes from all parts of the world. Coubertin did not associate individual rings with individual continents. The six colours of blue, dark yellow, black, green, red and white—the field on which the rings are set—"reproduce the colours of every country", and at least one is found on every national flag (I believe that’s still true). I was thinking of including a sketch of each of the Olympic sports, but depending on how you count them, there are 32 sports and over 300 events. You can learn more than you ever wanted to know about the history of the Olympic Flag in The Story of the Rings by Karl Lennartz (pdf). The Olympic flag and various other Olympic Properties (like the rings, torch and motto) are © IOC. Also see: The Union Jack Great Britain, the British Isles, the United Kingdom - eh?…The Olympic Flag, which consists of five interlocking coloured rings, was created by Frenchman Pierre de Coubertin, the founder of the modern Olympic games, and unveiled in 1914. Coubertin said that the five rings represent the five parts of the world embracing "Olympism" and competing against each other: Africa, The Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania. The interlacing of the rings represents the unity and coming together of athletes from all parts of the world. Coubertin did not associate individual rings with individual continents. The six colours of blue, dark yellow, black, green, red and white—the field on which the rings are set—"reproduce the colours of every country", and at least one is found on every national flag (I believe that’s still true). I was thinking of including a sketch of each of the Olympic sports, but depending on how you count them, there are 32 sports and over 300 events. You can learn more than you ever wanted to know about the history of the Olympic Flag in The Story of the Rings by Karl Lennartz (pdf). The Olympic flag and various other Olympic Properties (like the rings, torch and motto) are © IOC. Also see: The Union Jack Great Britain, the British Isles, the United Kingdom - eh?

4 Aug 2024

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